Those Current Account Imbalances: A Sceptical View1

The international current account imbalances, where the United States has a vast deficit, and several countries, notably Japan, China, Germany and the oil exporters have corresponding surpluses, are usually seen as problems. The argument here is that current account imbalances simply indicate intertemporal trade – the exchange of goods and services for claims. There are likely to be gains from trade of that kind as from ordinary trade. What, then, are the problems? This paper considers five scenarios, notably one where net savings of the surplus countries decline so that the world real interest rate rises, and another where the US fiscal deficit is reduced, so that the world real interest rate falls and there could be a worldwide aggregate demand problem, essentially caused by the high net savings of the surplus countries. The paper reviews the reasons for the large surpluses in terms of savings and investment ratios (especially China) and also discusses the long‐term problem for the United States. While four of the scenarios involve a decline in the dollar, they do not necessarily imply a sudden – and even ‘disruptive’– dollar crisis.     

Run length and the predictability of stock price reversals

Survival analysis is used to estimate time‐varying probabilities of price reversals using daily data for the Australian All Ordinaries Price Index. Lagged price changes lead to persistence (shortening) in a price run if they are of the same (opposite) sign as the run. An increase in the number of runs observed in the previous 30 days also increases the probability of price reversal. The predictive accuracy of the models is assessed using a probability scoring rule. Consistent with market efficiency, the estimated models are less accurate than the random walk model in predicting the length of individual price runs out‐of‐sample.     

Policy Regimes and Performance of the Agricultural Sector in Latin America and the Caribbean During the Last Three Decades

In a review of the policy regimes and agricultural output performance in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) during the past three decades, the linear sequence of pre-reform, crisis and reform, and post-reform recovery is qualified, focusing on a sample of nine LAC countries. The sector did quite well during the ISI policy regime, criticized for its price discrimination, and does not show the assumed characteristics of the 'lost decade' during most of the 1980s, as even agricultural exports (in constant terms) remained important, only to suffer from drops in international prices. Residually treated in the macro-oriented reforms, it has never regained the growth rates under the SAP policy regime, while it was expected that it would benefit more than others. These unorthodox conclusions are founded on a detailed investigation into agricultural output and export performance, correlating it with a reform index (on a country basis).     

The Leadership Quest: Three Things Necessary

The role of leadership, and the expectations carried with it, are subject to extensive consideration today, and yet we are very unsure of what to measure about leadership, and how. Three things should be placed at the top of leaders' lists: an understanding of the fiduciary nature of leadership; a broadened definition of leadership competence; and the enlightenment afforded leaders by a moral purpose.     

Credibility,currency convertibility and the stabilisation of the rouble

The measures taken so far to move towards currency convertibility and combat inflation in Russia and the other CIS countries are based largely on a three-stage programme formulated by the IMF. The following article presents alternatives and compares them with the IMF concept from the point of view of credibility.     

Hedge-Fonds als Asset-Klasse: Betrachtungen aus der Perspektive der deutschen Versicherungswirtschaft

The over performance of hedge funds until the current financial market turbulences led to a large number of insurers increasing their hedge funds quota. In the following this asset class is examined and particularly analyzed with respect to its adequacy for an insurance company's asset allocation by focusing on the axiom of safety, as demanded by national law. The problem of survivorship-bias and the Markowitz requirements of normal-distribution and constant correlations among the asset classes and their impact on a strategic asset allocation are studied.     

International market integration and demand: An analysis of the Norwegian and Danish herring market

This article provides a method where pre-tests for international market integration are used to identify market structures before estimating demand systems. The method is applied to the analysis of the European herring market. A Vector Auto Regressive model in Error Correction form is used to identify co-integration vectors between price series and, based on this, to test for the Law of One Price. The Law of One Price is in force between the landing markets for herring in the two largest global supplier countries, Norway and Denmark. Therefore, an inverse demand function is estimated for the combined Norwegian and Danish market. The results are used in the interpretation of the significant increase in the prices of herring on the Danish ex-vessel market in 2001, given the stability of the Danish market. The implication is that even though Denmark did not export to the main Norwegian export markets in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, the Danish landing price is influenced by the situation there.     

Declining global market share of Singapore's electronics exports: Is it a concern?

In contrast with the steadily rising shares of other regional exporters, Singapore's export shares in the global electronics market have been faltering in recent years. This has given rise to concerns about its export competitiveness. The drop in Singapore's global ranking can be attributed to shrinking exports of end products and low‐end electronics parts, as manufacturers relocate such assembly production out of Singapore to the regional economies. Fortunately, Singapore remains competitive in the export of high‐end intermediate electronics components, which are characterized by capability, technology, and automation‐intensive processes. While Singapore is progressing in the right direction, the climb up the high‐tech value chain needs to be further accelerated in order to maintain a technology gap with regional exporters. Besides accelerating its own industrial upgrading, Singapore needs to actively pursue measures that would help create a more integrated and competitive production platform for ASEAN, as well as to seek opportunities to service the rapidly enlarging consumer market in China. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Electronic transactions: Their impact on financial reporting

The creation of accounting transactions has changed from a manual to computerized recording. In many operational applications, the accounting entries are generated as a by-product of the underlying transactions, thus making it possible to shorten the existing delays in the creation of accounting data. Under this method, it is possible to issue financial statements monthly or weekly, as opposed to presently used quarterly and annual periods. Many corporations already generate such financial reports for their internal use but not for external purposes. It would be advisable to distribute financial reports via an electronic clearing house. This method would permit instant access to reports and insure that these documents cannot be modified by the preparer.